UPDATE 8:11, Sun. Nov. 11: Asterisks below indicate data slightly revised since this post's original publish date of 8:02 PM Thursday, Nov. 8.
A lot of people are responding to my post here, at Free Republic, and on Facebook. Most disagree with my thesis laid out in Part I but here we go with Part II, which can be called "gains and gaps":
- Obama lost votes in all but two states (LA and NC)
- Romney got more votes than McCain in 28* states. This is the case in some of the swing states and even deep blue states that Obama won handily. Examples:
Colorado: Obama lost 3.9% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 4.8% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Colorado by a smaller margin (51.2% to 46.5%) than in '08 (53.7% to 44.7%).
Delaware: Obama lost 5.1% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 8.6% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Delaware by a smaller margin (58.6% to 40.0%) than in '08 (61.9% to 36.9%).
Illinois: Obama lost 14.7% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 2.9% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Illinois by a smaller margin (57.3% to 41.1%) than in '08 (61.9% to 36.8%).
Indiana: Obama lost 17.0% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 5.0% more votes than McCain. This allowed Romney to take Indiana (54.3% to 43.8%) whereas Obama won it in '08 (50.0% to 49.0%).
Michigan*: Obama lost 10.8% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 31.1% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Michigan by a smaller margin (54.3% to 44.8%) than in '08 (57.4% to 41.0%).
Missouri: Obama lost 15.7% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 2.4% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Illinois by a smaller margin (53.9% to 44.3%) than in '08 (49.4% to 49.3%).
Nevada: Obama lost 0.9% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 12.0% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Nevada by a smaller margin (52.3% to 45.7%) than in '08 (55.1% to 42.7%).
Virginia: Obama lost 3.8% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 2.7% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Virginia by a smaller margin (50.8% to 47.8%) than in '08 (52.7% to 46.4%).
Wisconsin: Obama lost 3.8% of his 2008 voters while Romney got 11.6% more votes than McCain, which means Obama won Virginia by a smaller margin (52.8% to 46.1%) than in '08 (56.3% to 42.4%).
I realize these figures of of little comfort since Obama won all these states except Indiana anyway, and got their electoral votes. But I still think it's important to know that even in these blue or swing states Obama lost votes while Romney gained. There's no reason, in my opinion, why four years from now when the next Democrat candidate is someone other than Obama, the Republican candidate cannot narrow the gap even more and -- just like Indiana -- even take that state.
In all the red states, with the stange exception of Louisiana and North Carolina, Obama lost huge percentages of votes. Romney gained votes in some of those states, but, inexplicably, lost votes in others. Among the latter are Alaska, Arizona, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. If you combine the votes Romney gained in the red states and added them to the votes he lost, it's probably a wash -- and I'll admit that is a problem.
But you might be asking, if Romney got more votes in 27 states than McCain did, then how did he end up losing 3.5 million votes nationwide? The answer lies mainly in three states: California, New York, and New Jersey. In California alone, Romney received an astounding 1.36 million fewer votes than McCain in 2008. Another 760 thousand Republican votes were lost in New York and New Jersey. (In these three states, Obama lost 3.9 million votes, so for some reason there was a huge decrease of voter turnout there.). There's 2 million missing Republican votes right there.
Yes, the Republicans lost. Despite all his dismal failures, Obama and his sycophantic media machine waged a successful slash-and-burn campaign. Too many protesting conservatives, liberatarians, and "constitutionalists" decided to stay home or vote third party, otherwise this election could very easily had tilted the other way. They need to get over themselves and get back.
This isn't over. I think we're still in good shape if people just freaking go to the polls next time! We also need to seriously outreach more to blacks, Hispanics, etc. It sucks because one shouldn't have to pander to perceived "victim" groups, but that's the reality of politics. Am I being Pollyanna-ish? Probably. But I'm also trying to be realistic.
For those interested: The state-by-state data